MBS RECAP: Wage Growth Breakout Prompts Bond Yield Breakout

MBS RECAP: Bonds Look Determined to Consolidate Thu, 13 Jun 2019 21 . Posted To: Monday and Tuesday were a bit nerve-racking as it looked like yields might break back above the pre-Mexico-tariff-threat gap in the 10yr yield chart. But bonds bounced well before that happened and have been trending calmly lower ever since.

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There’s a nice rally underway today, with 10yr yields down. move in European bond markets (about twice as strong, actually), but US markets have held their own ahead of today’s 30yr bond auction.

It might be the case, as the U.S. dollar strengthened during the bond market turmoil and the stock market rout, as the next chart shows. If true, bad times are approaching for gold, as higher yields are not worrying if they signal global growth and a return to normalcy.

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In fact, after a brief initial reaction, the underlying bond market actually improved (which is consistent. they could have a closer eye on the wage growth component, which was lower than expected..

Bodnar: Wage growth is accelerating at 3 percent to four percent, which can cause inflation. They will be reinvested into the Treasury market, so the Fed ultimately isn’t allowing mortgage-backed securities to roll up their books not a big negative for the mortgage bond market.

MBS opened flat and have similarly been improving. One of the only correlations to observe is that stocks have moved mostly lower over the same time. The S&P is now back in line with Friday’s 4pm.

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The weeks leading up to the Italian drama ended up looking like a big, temporary breakout of what would eventually become the sideways-to-slightly-higher range. Subsequent global risks haven’t measured up to Italy in terms of bond market impact.

MBS RECAP: Tentative Test of Technicals after Treasury Auction MBS RECAP: Mostly Weaker, Bonds Battle Back on Korea Headlines. Bonds began to recover on their own , and for no great reason other than technical ceilings were hit, the EU bond market closed, and $/yen reversed course. The 3yr Treasury auction added to the gains with an exceptionally strong.